Thailand's long-term GHG emission reduction in 2050: the achievement of renewable energy and energy efficiency beyond the NDC

The sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Thailand come from the energy sector, including power generation, transport, industries, buildings, and households. In 2016, the energy sector contributed 77 percent of total GHG emissions. Thailand's energy policies are the essential instrument to deal with GHG emission reduction under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). The renewable energy (RE) plans aim at increasing the share of RE in final energy consumption while the energy efficiency (EE) plans aim at improving energy efficiency as well as reducing fossil-fuel consumption. GHG emission mitigation will result in several co-benefits such as increasing energy security and decreasing local air pollutants. Therefore, this study analyzes potentials of GHG emission reduction during 2015-2050 from utilization of renewable energy and increasing energy efficiency using the Long-range Energy Alternative Planning system (LEAP) model. Results include potentials of domestic RE and EE measures to achieve Thailand's nationally determined contribution (NDC). Moreover, it was found that to meet Thailand's first NDC of 20 percent GHG emission reduction target in 2030, targets in the RE plan and the EE plan must be achieved by at least 50 percent and 75 percent, respectively, or targets in the RE plan and the EE plan must be achieved by at least 75 percent and 50 percent. In addition, the extended NDC scenario in 2050 is analyzed in the long-term perspective of Thailand showing 30.4 percent reduction when compared to the BAU. The policy implication includes promotion of energy efficiency, acceleration of the deployment of renewable energy and advanced technologies such as CCS, completion of transmission network for renewable electricity, zoning of biomass sources, and public awareness in climate changes.