International Trade and Public Protest: Evidence from Russian Regions

How does economic globalization influence domestic political stability? Building on innovations in trade theory, we argue that international trade amplifies political discontent and protest in contexts in which trade losers concentrate, but has a pacifying effect in contexts dominated by beneficiaries of free trade. We examine this argument focusing on variation in Russian regions. Using negative binomial regression models on data from 2007 to 2012, we show that regional education levels condition the effect of trade intensity on protest frequency. High exposure to trade leads to more protests in regions with low average education levels, but fewer protests in regions in which residents are well-educated. Probing the underlying mechanism, we find that the effect of trade on regional economic welfare is conditioned by education levels, that poorly educated Russians face more economic difficulties when they live in regions exposed to trade, and that economically aggrieved individuals participate more in protests.