Journal
ANNALS OF THE AMERICAN ACADEMY OF POLITICAL AND SOCIAL SCIENCE
Volume 692, Issue 1, Pages 162-181Publisher
SAGE PUBLICATIONS INC
DOI: 10.1177/0002716220978200
Keywords
risk assessment; child protective services; predictive risk modeling; child welfare policy
Funding
- NIMH NIH HHS [T32 MH019960] Funding Source: Medline
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Predictive risk modeling (PRM) is a new approach to data analysis that can be used to help identify risks of abuse and maltreatment among children. Several child welfare agencies have considered, piloted, or implemented PRM for this purpose. We discuss and analyze the application of PRM to child protection programs, elaborating on the various misgivings that arise from the application of predictive modeling to human behavior, and we present a framework to guide the application of PRM in child welfare systems. Our framework considers three core questions: (1) Is PRM more accurate than current practice? (2) Is PRM ethically equivalent or superior to current practice? and (3) Are necessary evaluative and implementation procedures established prior to, during, and following introduction of the PRM?
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