Journal
HYDROLOGICAL SCIENCES JOURNAL
Volume 62, Issue 14, Pages 2239-2265Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/02626667.2017.1383608
Keywords
Inner Niger Delta; climate change; uncertainty; hydrological modelling; CMIP5
Categories
Funding
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/E001890/1]
- NERC [NE/E001890/1] Funding Source: UKRI
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/E001890/1] Funding Source: researchfish
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A semi-distributed hydrological model of the Upper Niger and the Inner Niger Delta is used to investigate the RCP 4.5 scenario for 41 CMIP5 GCMs in the 2050s and 2080s. In percentage terms, the range of change in precipitation is around four times as large as for potential evapotranspiration, which increases for most GCMs over most sub-catchments. Almost equal numbers of subcatchment-GCM combinations experience positive and negative precipitation change. River discharge changes are equally uncertain. Inter-GCM range in mean discharge exceeds that of precipitation by three times in percentage terms. Declining seasonal flooding within the Inner Delta is dominant; 78 and 68% of GCMs project declines in October and November for the 2050s and 2080s, respectively. The 10- and 90-percentile changes in mean annual peak inundation range from -6136 km(2) (-43%) to + 987 km(2) (+7%) for the 2050s and -6176 km(2) (-43%) to +1165 km(2) (+8.2%) for the 2080s.
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