Journal
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume 44, Issue 6, Pages 2911-2921Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2016GL071565
Keywords
ozone; air pollution; climate change impacts; natural variability; model projections
Categories
Funding
- U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Climate Change Division [XA-83600001-0]
- U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science
- National Science Foundation
- Office of Science (BER) of the U.S. Department of Energy
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Climate change can impact air quality by altering the atmospheric conditions that determine pollutant concentrations. Over large regions of the U.S., projected changes in climate are expected to favor formation of ground-level ozone and aggravate associated health effects. However, modeling studies exploring air quality-climate interactions have often overlooked the role of natural variability, a major source of uncertainty in projections. Here we use the largest ensemble simulation of climate-induced changes in air quality generated to date to assess its influence on estimates of climate change impacts on U.S. ozone. We find that natural variability can significantly alter the robustness of projections of the future climate's effect on ozone pollution. In this study, a 15year simulation length minimum is required to identify a distinct anthropogenic-forced signal. Therefore, we suggest that studies assessing air quality impacts use multidecadal simulations or initial condition ensembles. With natural variability, impacts attributable to climate may be difficult to discern before midcentury or under stabilization scenarios.
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