Stochastic Occupant Behaviour Model: Impact on residential energy use

In many energy calculation methods a 'typical use' of the building is assumed, which leads to a systematic gap between the calculated energy use and the actual energy use. Therefore, more detailed occupant behaviour models have been developed. However, current models are often specifically focussed on one type of behaviour, are designed for offices or are deterministic. In this paper, the further development of the StROBe-model (Baetens et al., 2016) is explained whilst making an analysis of the influence of different types of occupant behaviour on the energy use with Modelica. The simulated heat demand is a good approximation of the real heat demand and captures the variation between households very well. However, due to a severe overestimation of the domestic hot water use, the heat demand for space heating is underestimated. In the next steps, specific attention will need to be given to the modelling of electricity use and domestic hot water use. Next to that, more research needs to be done on the interrelation between the different behaviours. This further development is crucial to more accurately predict the energy use in residential buildings and so overcome the performance gap attributed to occupant behaviour.