Journal
EMERGING MARKETS FINANCE AND TRADE
Volume 57, Issue 3, Pages 786-797Publisher
ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/1540496X.2019.1665015
Keywords
centralized photovoltaic electricity (CPV); grid parity; learning curve; levelized cost of energy (LCOE)
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Funding
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [2018ZD14, GB2016MS69]
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This paper investigates the grid parity of centralized PV electricity in China, analyzing the cost of CPV electricity, predicting the time when grid parity will be achieved in different regions, and the impact of price changes on the results.
Over the past decade, the photovoltaic (PV) industry in China has made great progress. However, this progress benefited from a series of subsidy policies, and with the continuous enlargement of the scale of centralized PV (CPV), the large subsidies have created great pressure on government finance, so achieving grid parity in CPV electricity is an urgent matter. This paper studies the grid parity of CPV electricity. First, this paper calculates the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of CPV electricity. Second, using historical data and a dual learning curve, the paper predicts the LCOE of CPV electricity under scenarios with different resource zones and utilization times. Third, the paper predicts the LCOE of coal-fired electricity and draws conclusions based on changes in the price of coal and charcoal. Finally, the paper predicts when grid parity in CPV electricity in different resources areas will be achieved.
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