Journal
EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH
Volume 33, Issue 3, Pages 553-577Publisher
PALGRAVE MACMILLAN LTD
DOI: 10.1057/s41287-020-00280-1
Keywords
Kazakhstan; Migration policies; Push-pull; retain-repel factors; Migration intentions; Policy scenarios; Bayesian networks
Categories
Funding
- German Research Foundation DFG [BU1319/16-1, HE 5272/8-1]
Ask authors/readers for more resources
This study examines the impact of push-pull factors on migration intentions of potential migrants in northern Kazakhstan using Bayesian Networks. The findings suggest that policies restricting urban in-migration can be mitigated by factors such as social networks and reverse remittances. Providing accessible information on urban income and housing costs, as well as improving education resources, can help reduce migration intentions among rural residents.
Despite the benefits associated with the free movement of people, governments often try to regulate urban immigration by constraining the agency of potential rural out-migrants in moving to cities and/or in expanding their agency to enable them to stay put. We apply an institutional framework centring on push-pull and retain-repel factors to migration intentions of potential migrants in northern Kazakhstan. We model the effects of these factors on migration intentions with Bayesian Networks and expand the baseline model with three policy scenarios. The results suggest that the effects of policies constraining urban in-migration, e.g. limiting access to affordable housing, are attenuated by social networks and reverse remittances. The supply of accessible and appropriate information on possible income and true housing costs in urban areas presents a promising road to reduce intentions of rural out-migration. Better schools and decentralised tertiary education can also reduce the migration intentions of rural residents.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available