Comparison of artificial intelligence and empirical models for energy production estimation of 20 MWp solar photovoltaic plant at the Saharan Medium of Algeria

Purpose This study aims to estimate the electric power production of the 20 MWp solar photovoltaic (PV) plant installed in the Adrar region, South of Algeria using minimal knowledge about weather conditions. Design/methodology/approach In this study, simulation models based on linear and nonlinear approaches were used to estimate accurate energy production from minimum radiometric and meteorological data. Simulations have been carried out by using multiple linear regression (MLR) and artificial neural network (ANN) models with three basic types of neuron connection architectures, namely, feed-forward neural network, cascade-forward neural network (CNN) and Elman neural network. The performance is measured based on evaluation indexes, namely, mean absolute percentage error, normalized mean absolute error and normalized root mean square error. Findings A comparison of the proposed ANN models has been made with MLR models. The performance analysis indicates that all the ANN-based models are superior in prediction accuracy and stability, and among these models, the most accurate results are obtained with the use of CNN-based models. Practical implications The considered model will be adopted in solar PV forecasting areas as part of the operational forecasting chain based on numerical weather prediction. It can be an effective and powerful forecasting approach for solar power generation for large-scale PV plants. Social implications The operational forecasting system can be used to generate an effective schedule for national grid electricity system operators to ensure the sustainability as well as favourable trading performance in the electricity, such as adjusting the scheduling plan, ensuring power quality, reducing depletion of fossil fuel resources and consequently decreasing the environmental pollution. Originality/value The proposed method uses the instantaneous radiometric and meteorological data in 15-min time interval recorded over the two years of operation, which made the result exploits a fact that the energy production estimation of PV power generation station is comparatively more accurate.

Automated summary

This study estimated the electric power production of a 20 MWp solar photovoltaic plant in Algeria using minimal knowledge about weather conditions, utilizing linear and nonlinear simulation models. Comparison between artificial neural network (ANN) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models showed that ANN-based models were superior in prediction accuracy, with cascade-forward neural network (CNN) models providing the most accurate results. The proposed forecasting model has practical implications for solar PV forecasting and social implications for improving grid electricity system operations.