Journal
PSYCHONOMIC BULLETIN & REVIEW
Volume 28, Issue 2, Pages 703-709Publisher
SPRINGER
DOI: 10.3758/s13423-020-01763-2
Keywords
Bayesian Reasoning; Presentation Formats; Natural Frequencies; Pictorial Representation
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Different theoretical views on Bayesian reasoning claim support from results showing that natural sampling, whole numbers, and pictorial representations enhance reasoning performance. Plural wording and icon arrays were found to positively affect reasoning performance in different ways.
Different theoretical views about Bayesian reasoning (ecological rationality and nested sets views) both claim support from results showing that natural sampling, whole numbers, and pictorial representations help with reasoning performance, although they differ in explaining how those results occur. Three studies (total N = 653) use minimally different numerical presentation formats-varying the singular or plural tense of the context story topic-and presence or absence of an additional icon array picture, to better understand the mechanisms driving these reasoning performance results. Plural wording, indicating a conceptual aggregation (i.e., frequencies) rather than just numerical whole numbers, consistently boosted performance. Icon arrays, in contrast, were helpful only when alongside single-tense information. These results fit more consistently with an ecological rationality view which has long argued that the mind is adapted to work best with frequentist information.
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