A Novel 85-Gene Expression Signature Predicts Unfavorable Prognosis in Acute Myeloid Leukemia

Aim: Acute myeloid leukemia (AML) is a heterogeneous disorder with complex genetic basis and adverse prognosis. Cytogenetics risk, somatic mutations and gene expression profiles are important prognostic factors for AML patients. However, accurate stratification of patient prognosis remains an unsolved problem in AML. This study was to to develop a novel gene profile to accurately classify AML patients into subgroups with different survival probabilities. Methods: Survival-related genes were determined by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and multivariate analysis using the expression and clinical data of 405 AML patients from Oregon Health & Science University (OHSU) dataset and validated in The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. Feature selection was performed by using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) method. With the LASSO model, a prognostic 85-gene score was established and compared with 2 known gene-expression risk scores. The stratification of AML patients was performed by unsupervised hierarchical clustering of 85 gene expression levels to identify clusters of AML patients with different survival probabilities. Results: The LASSO model comprising 85 genes was considered as the optimal model based on relatively high area under curve value (0.83) and the minimum mean squared error. The 85-gene score was associated with increased mortality in AML patients. Hierarchical clustering analysis of the 85 genes revealed 3 subgroups of AML patients in the OHSU dataset. The cluster1 AML patients were associated with more female cases, higher percent of bone marrow blast cells, 85-gene score, cytogenetics risk, more frequent FLT3-ITD, DNMT3A, NP1 mutations, less frequent TP53, RUNX1 mutations, poorer overall survival than cluster2 tumors. The 85-gene score had higher AUC (0.75) than the 5-gene risk score and LSC17 score (0.74 and 0.65). Conclusions: The 85-gene score is superior to the 2 established prognostic gene signatures in the prediction of prognosis of AML patients.

Automated summary

The study aimed to develop a novel gene profile to classify AML patients into different survival probability subgroups, using data from 405 patients and validated in TCGA. The 85-gene score was found to be superior in predicting AML patient prognosis compared to 2 established gene signatures. It successfully stratified AML patients into 3 subgroups with different survival probabilities based on hierarchial clustering of gene expression levels.