Forecasting tourism recovery amid COVID-19

The profound impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic on global tourism activity has rendered forecasts of tourism demand obsolete. Accordingly, scholars have begun to seek the best methods to predict the recovery of tourism from the devastating effects of COVID-19. In this study, econometric and judgmental methods were combined to forecast the possible paths to tourism recovery in Hong Kong. The autoregressive distributed lag-error correction model was used to generate baseline forecasts, and Delphi adjustments based on different recovery scenarios were performed to reflect different levels of severity in terms of the pandemic's influence. These forecasts were also used to evaluate the economic effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry in Hong Kong. (C) 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Automated summary

This study combined econometric and judgmental methods to forecast possible paths to tourism recovery in Hong Kong in response to the devastating impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Forecasts were generated using an autoregressive distributed lag-error correction model, with Delphi adjustments made based on different recovery scenarios to evaluate the economic effects of COVID-19 on the tourism industry in Hong Kong.