Journal
INTERNATIONAL REVIEW OF FINANCIAL ANALYSIS
Volume 74, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.irfa.2021.101678
Keywords
International bond markets; Bond markets integration; Copula; Tail dependence
Categories
Funding
- 'Ministerio de Economia, Industria y Competitividad' (MINEIC) [MINEIC-AEI-FEDER ECO2017-85503-R]
- 'Agencia Estatal de Investigacion'(AEI) Spain
- 'Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional'(FEDER)
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The study reveals significant upper tail dependence and lower tail dependence in international bond markets, with the Eurozone showing the highest dependency. The order of connectivity among bond markets is found to be UK, USA, Italy, Japan, Eurozone, France, Canada, Germany, and Australia. Results from the R-vine copula highlight Eurozone, Germany, and Australia as the most interconnected nodes.
The finance literature provides substantial evidence on the dependence between international bond markets across developed and emerging countries. Early works in this area were based on linear models and multivariate GARCH models. However, based on the limitations of these models this paper re-examines the non-linearity, multivariate and tail dependence structure between government bond markets of the US, UK, Japan, Germany, Canada, France, Italy, Australia and the Eurozone, from January 1970 to February 2019 using ARMA-GARCH based pair-copula models. We find that the bond markets in our sample tend to have both upper tail dependence in terms of positive shocks and lower tail dependence in terms of negative shocks. The estimated C-vine shows Eurozone has the highest average dependency. The D-vine, with optimal chain dependency structure shows the best order of connectedness to be the UK, the USA, Italy, Japan, Eurozone, France, Canada, Germany and Australia. The R-vine copula results underline the complex dynamics of bond market relations existing between the selected economies. The estimated R-vine shows Eurozone, Germany and Australia are the most inter-connected nodes. The multivariate distribution structure (interdependency) of bond markets for all countries were modelled with the C-vine, D-vine and R-vine copulas. In this application, the R-vine copula allows for detailed modelling of all bond markets and hence provides a more accurate goodness of fit and mean square error for the interdependency between all markets. In light of the changing volatility in bond markets, we conduct additional tests using time-varying copulas and find that the dependence structure among the bond markets examined is time-varying with the dynamic dependence parameter plots revealing that the nature of the dependence structure is intense during crisis periods.
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