Journal
JOURNAL OF GREAT LAKES RESEARCH
Volume 47, Issue 4, Pages 945-954Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.jglr.2021.05.004
Keywords
Coastal erosion; Lake level; Habitat loss; Lake Michigan; Hydrodynamics
Funding
- Great Lakes Restoration Initiative from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
- University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign through Woolpert
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Research shows that Lake Michigan reached record high water levels in the 2010s, leading to significantly higher habitat loss rates along the coast compared to the previous century. It is expected that climate change may increase the variability of water level fluctuations in the Great Lakes, potentially exacerbating coastal habitat loss in the future.
Lake Michigan rose to record high water levels in the 2010s; during this time, some coastal sites experienced habitat loss rates an order of magnitude higher than during previous high water periods throughout the 20th century. The high magnitude and rapid rate of rise observed during the 2012-2020 period in combination with a slight increase in the percentage of storm waves likely accelerated habitat loss rates beyond levels that were observed over the past century. Our data suggest that rapid and relatively large changes from low water levels to high water levels are the main driver of large erosional losses, as the coastal system shifts abruptly from one water-level regime to another. One likely impact of climate change on Great Lakes' water level is an increase in the variability of fluctuations, thus more scenarios of abrupt and rapid water-level rise and associated habitat loss are expected in the future. We propose that the unprecedented habitat loss observed during the 2012-2020 timeframe will become the new normal in the coming century as enhanced variability in water levels facilitates sustained coastal land loss. (c) 2021 International Association for Great Lakes Research. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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