Meeting well-below 2°C target would increase energy sector jobs globally

To limit global warming to well-below 2 degrees C (WB2C), fossil fuels must be replaced by low-carbon energy sources. Support for this transition is often dampened by the impact on fossil fuel jobs. Previous work shows that pro-climate polices could increase employment by 20 million net energy jobs, but these studies rely on Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) jobs data, assumptions about jobs in non OECD countries, and a single baseline assumption. Here we combine a global dataset of job intensities across 11 energy technologies and five job categories in 50 countries with an integrated assessment model under three shared socioeconomic pathways. We estimate direct energy jobs under a WB2C scenario and current policy scenarios. We find that, by 2050, energy sector jobs would grow from today's 18 million to 26 million under a WB2C scenario compared with 21 million under the current policy scenario. Fossil fuel extraction jobs would rapidly decline, but losses will be compensated by gains in solar and wind jobs, particularly in the manufacturing sector (totaling 7.7 million in 2050).

Automated summary

By analyzing job intensities of different energy technologies in various countries, and using an integrated assessment model, it is estimated that under a WB2C scenario, the energy sector jobs will increase to 26 million by 2050 from the current 18 million. This growth will mainly come from the solar and wind industries, offsetting the decline in fossil fuel extraction jobs.