Projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate underestimate internal variability and associated uncertainty

Future projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate based on climate model simulations substantially underestimate the uncertainty that originates from large-scale atmospheric circulation variability, suggest synthetic ensemble projections constrained with observations. Internal climate variability will play a major role in determining change on regional scales under global warming. In the extratropics, large-scale atmospheric circulation is responsible for much of observed regional climate variability, from seasonal to multidecadal timescales. However, the extratropical circulation variability on multidecadal timescales is systematically weaker in coupled climate models. Here we show that projections of future extratropical climate from coupled model simulations significantly underestimate the projected uncertainty range originating from large-scale atmospheric circulation variability. Using observational datasets and large ensembles of coupled climate models, we produce synthetic ensemble projections constrained to have variability consistent with the large-scale atmospheric circulation in observations. Compared to the raw model projections, the synthetic observationally-constrained projections exhibit an increased uncertainty in projected 21st century temperature and precipitation changes across much of the Northern extratropics. This increased uncertainty is also associated with an increase of the projected occurrence of future extreme seasons.

Automated summary

Future projections of northern hemisphere extratropical climate based on climate model simulations underestimate the uncertainty originating from large-scale atmospheric circulation variability. Internal climate variability will play a major role in determining regional changes under global warming conditions. Large-scale atmospheric circulation is responsible for observed regional climate variability, but is systematically weaker in coupled climate models on multidecadal timescales.