Journal
COMPUTERS AND GEOTECHNICS
Volume 69, Issue -, Pages 540-550Publisher
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.compgeo.2015.06.016
Keywords
Probabilistic analysis; Point estimate method; Monte Carlo Simulation; Reliability index; Probability of failure
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Funding
- Austrian Society for Geomechanics
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This study examines the applicability of point estimate methods (PEMs) in the probabilistic stability analysis of slopes. For illustrative purposes, two slopes indicating two different mechanisms of failure are selected and probabilistic analyses are performed employing three PEMs that have been widely cited in different literature reports. To evaluate the benefits and shortcomings of each PEM, various cases are studied in which random parameters may be dependent or independent and can have arbitrary distributions. Furthermore, the efficiency and accuracy of the considered PEMs are assessed by comparing the results with those obtained by Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS). The results indicate that the considered PEMs are sufficiently precise and, in case an intricate geotechnical structure must be probabilistically analysed, they can readily be incorporated with numerical methods. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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