African swine fever outbreaks in China led to gross domestic product and economic losses

African swine fever has spread to all Chinese provinces, limiting pork production and trade. Outbreaks occurring between 2018 and 2019 led to economic losses in pork and related industries-but projected future outbreaks could cause greater economic impacts. African swine fever (ASF) is a fatal and highly infectious haemorrhagic disease that has spread to all provinces in China-the world's largest producer and consumer of pork. Here we use an input-output model, partial equilibrium theory and a substitution indicator approach for handling missing data to develop a systematic valuation framework for assessing economic losses caused by ASF outbreaks in China between August 2018 and July 2019. We show that the total economic loss accounts for 0.78% of China's gross domestic product in 2019, with impacts experienced in almost all economic sectors through links to the pork industry and a substantial decrease in consumer surplus. Scenario analyses demonstrate that the worst cases of pig production reduction and price increase would trigger 1.4% and 2.07% declines in gross domestic product, respectively. These findings demonstrate an urgent need for rapid ASF containment and prevention measures to avoid future outbreaks and economic declines.

Automated summary

African swine fever has spread throughout China, impacting pork production and trade, resulting in significant economic losses. The disease has caused a total economic loss of 0.78% of China's GDP in 2019, affecting various economic sectors and reducing consumer surplus. The study emphasizes the urgent need for swift containment and prevention measures to avoid future outbreaks and economic declines.