A 1 km global cropland dataset from 10 000 BCE to 2100 CE

Cropland greatly impacts food security, energy supply, biodiversity, biogeochemical cycling, and climate change. Accurately and systematically understanding the effects of agricultural activities requires cropland spatial information with high resolution and a long time span. In this study, the first 1 km resolution global cropland proportion dataset for 10 000 BCE-2100 CE was produced. With the cropland map initialized in 2010 CE, we first harmonized the cropland demands extracted from the History Database of the Global Environment 3.2 (HYDE 3.2) and the Land-Use Harmonization 2 (LUH2) datasets and then spatially allocated the demands based on the combination of cropland suitability, kernel density, and other constraints. According to our maps, cropland originated from several independent centers and gradually spread to other regions, influenced by some important historical events. The spatial patterns of future cropland change differ in various scenarios due to the different socioeconomic pathways and mitigation levels. The global cropland area generally shows an increasing trend over the past years, from 0 x 10(6) km(2) in 10 000 BCE to 2 :8 x 10(6) km(2) in 1500 CE, 6 :2 x (10)6 km(2) in 1850 CE, and 16 :4 x 10(6) km(2) in 2010 CE. It then follows diverse trajectories under future scenarios, with the growth rate ranging from 16.4% to 82.4% between 2010 CE and 2100 CE. There are large area disparities among different geographical regions. The mapping result coincides well with widely used datasets at present in both distribution pattern and total amount. With improved spatial resolution, our maps can better capture the cropland distribution details and spatial heterogeneity. The spatiotemporally continuous and conceptually consistent global cropland dataset serves as a more comprehensive alternative for long-term earth system simulations and other precise analyses. The flexible and efficient harmonization and downscaling framework can be applied to specific regions or extended to other land use and cover types through the adjustable parameters and open model structure. The 1 km global cropland maps are available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5105689 (Cao et al., 2021a).

Automated summary

Cropland has significant impacts on food security, energy supply, biodiversity, biogeochemical cycling, and climate change. Future trends in cropland area show variations across different regions, with the global cropland map providing better details and spatial heterogeneity.