Healthy ecosystems for human and animal health: Science diplomacy for responsible development in the Arctic The Nordic Centre of Excellence, Clinf.org (Climate-change effects on the epidemiology of infectious diseases and the impacts on Northern societies)

Climate warming is occurring most rapidly in the Arctic, which is both a sentinel and a driver of further global change. Ecosystems and human societies are already affected by warming. Permafrost thaws and species are on the move, bringing pathogens and vectors to virgin areas. During a five-year project, the CLINF - a Nordic Center of Excellence, funded by the Nordic Council of Ministers, has worked with the One Health concept, integrating environmental data with human and animal disease data in predictive models and creating maps of dynamic processes affecting the spread of infectious diseases. It is shown that tularemia outbreaks can be predicted even at a regional level with a manageable level of uncertainty. To decrease uncertainty, rapid development of new and harmonised technologies and databases is needed from currently highly heterogeneous data sources. A major source of uncertainty for the future of contaminants and infectious diseases in the Arctic, however, is associated with which paths the majority of the globe chooses to follow in the future. Diplomacy is one of the most powerful tools Arctic nations have to influence these choices of other nations, supported by Arctic science and One Health approaches that recognise the interconnection between people, animals, plants and their shared environment at the local, regional, national and global levels as essential for achieving a sustainable development for both the Arctic and the globe.

Automated summary

Climate warming is impacting the Arctic rapidly, with ecosystems and human societies already feeling the effects. The CLINF project has shown that tularemia outbreaks can be predicted at a regional level, but rapid development of new technologies and harmonised databases is needed to decrease uncertainty. Diplomacy and One Health approaches are powerful tools for Arctic nations to influence global choices and achieve sustainable development.