Rapid Life-Cycle Impact Screening Using Artificial Neural Networks

The number of chemicals in the market is rapidly increasing, while our understanding of the life-cycle impacts of these chemicals lags considerably. To address this, we developed deep artificial neural network (ANN) models to estimate life-cycle impacts of chemicals. Using molecular structure information, we trained multilayer ANNs for life-cycle impacts of chemicals using six impact categories, including cumulative energy demand, global warming (IPCC 2007), acidification (TRACI), human health (Impact2000+), ecosystem quality (Impact2000+), and eco-indicator 99 (I,I, total). The application domain (AD) of the model was estimated for each impact category within which the model exhibits higher reliability. We also tested three approaches for selecting molecular descriptors and identified the principal component analysis (PCA) as the best approach. The predictions for acidification, human health, and the eco-indicator 99 model showed relatively higher performance with R-2 values of 0.73, 0.71, and 0.87, respectively, while the global warming model had a lower R-2 of 0.48. This study indicates that ANN models can serve as an initial screening tool for estimating life-cycle impacts of chemicals for certain impact categories in the absence of more reliable information. Our analysis also highlights the importance of understanding ADs for interpreting the ANN results.