Journal
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
Volume 51, Issue 22, Pages 13161-13169Publisher
AMER CHEMICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.7b03468
Keywords
-
Categories
Funding
- National Key Research and Development Program of China [2016YFC0207603]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [71433007, 41601546]
- Jiangsu Natural Sciences Foundation of China [BK20160624]
Ask authors/readers for more resources
China established ground PM2.5 monitoring network in late 2012 and hence the long-term and large-scale PM2.5 data were lacking before 2013. In this work, we developed a national-scale spatiotemporal linear mixed effects model to estimate the long-term PM2.5 concentrations in China from 1957 to 1964 and from 1973 to 2014 using ground visibility monitoring data as the primary predictor. The overall model-fitting and cross-validation R-2 is 0.72 and 0.71, suggesting that the model is not oveffitted. Validation beyond the model year (2014) indicated that the model could accurately estimate historical PM2.5 concentrations at the monthly (R-2 = 0.71) level. The historical PM2.5 estimates suggest that air pollution is not a new environmental issue that occurs in the recent decades but a problem existing in a longer time before 1980. The PM2.5 concentrations have reached 60-80 mu g/m(3) in the north part of North China Plain during 1950s-1960s and increased to generally higher than 90 mu g/m(3) during 1970s. The results also show that the entire China experienced an overall increasing trend (0.19 mu g/m(3)/yr, P < 0.001) in PM2.5 concentrations from 1957 to 2014 with fluctuations among different periods. This paper demonstrated visibility data allow us to understand the spatiotemporal characteristics of PM2.5 pollution in China in a longterm.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available