Journal
ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE & TECHNOLOGY
Volume 51, Issue 24, Pages 14453-14461Publisher
AMER CHEMICAL SOC
DOI: 10.1021/acs.est.7b03150
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Funding
- Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, Role of Shale Oil in the U.S. Energy Transition: Recoverable Resources, Production Rates, and Implication
- Alfred P. Sloan Foundation,Water Demand for Five Major U.S. Unconventional Reservoirs Relative to Water Supplies
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Production of oil from shale and tight reservoirs accounted for almost 50% of 2016 total U.S. production,and is projected to continue growing. The objective of our analysis was to quantify the water outlook for future shale oil development using the Eagle Ford Shale as a case study. We developed a water outlook model that projects water use for hydraulic fracturing (HF) and flowback and produced water (FP) volumes based on expected energy prices; historical oil, natural gas, and water production decline data per well; projected well spacing; and well economics. The number of wells projected to be drilled in the Eagle Ford through 2045 is almost linearly related to oil price, ranging from 20 000 wells at $30/barrel (bbl) oil to 97 000 wells at $100/bbl oil. Projected FP water volumes range from 20% to 40% of HF across the play. Our base reference oil price of $50/bbl would result in 40 000 additional wells and related HF of 265 X 10(9) gal and FP of 85 x 10(9) gal. The presented water outlooks for HF and FP water volumes can be used to assess future water sourcing and wastewater disposal or reuse, and to inform policy discussions.
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