A Deep Learning BiLSTM Encoding-Decoding Model for COVID-19 Pandemic Spread Forecasting

The COVID-19 pandemic has widely spread with an increasing infection rate through more than 200 countries. The governments of the world need to record the confirmed infectious, recovered, and death cases for the present state and predict the cases. In favor of future case prediction, governments can impose opening and closing procedures to save human lives by slowing down the pandemic progression spread. There are several forecasting models for pandemic time series based on statistical processing and machine learning algorithms. Deep learning has been proven as an excellent tool for time series forecasting problems. This paper proposes a deep learning time-series prediction model to forecast the confirmed, recovered, and death cases. Our proposed network is based on an encoding-decoding deep learning network. Moreover, we optimize the selection of our proposed network hyper-parameters. Our proposed forecasting model was applied in Saudi Arabia. Then, we applied the proposed model to other countries. Our study covers two categories of countries that have witnessed different spread waves this year. During our experiments, we compared our proposed model and the other time-series forecasting models, which totaled fifteen prediction models: three statistical models, three deep learning models, seven machine learning models, and one prophet model. Our proposed forecasting model accuracy was assessed using several statistical evaluation criteria. It achieved the lowest error values and achieved the highest R-squared value of 0.99. Our proposed model may help policymakers to improve the pandemic spread control, and our method can be generalized for other time series forecasting tasks.

Automated summary

This paper introduces a deep learning time-series prediction model to forecast COVID-19 confirmed, recovered, and death cases. The proposed model demonstrates high accuracy in experiments, outperforming other forecasting models with lower error values and a higher R-squared value of 0.99.