Economic growth, openness, industry and CO2 modelling: are regulatory policies important in Turkish economies?

As a result of economic growth, demand for energy increases as well as raw materials. The fact that energy sources are mostly fossil fuels has increased interest in causation between growth and environmental pollution. As global warming and climate changes gain importance in recent years, environmental pollution continues to be discussed in the economic literature. As Turkey's economy grows rapidly, its increasing energy needs are often met with fossil fuels because they are cheaper than other options. This study analyzes the availability of the environmental Kuznets curve (EKC) hypothesis, which analyzes an inverse U-shaped relation among carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions per capita and output for Turkey in the period 1961-2018. The study used the autoregressive distributed lag to demonstrate the short- and long-term relationship between CO2 emissions per capita, real income per capita, industry and trade openness. The conclusions do confirm that there is a quadratic relation between income and CO2 emissions, supporting EKC relation in the long term. The results also demonstrate that the CO2, which is a major component of greenhouse gases, are mainly specified by income in the long term and short term. The contribution of industry to CO2 is minimal in the long run, while trade openness does not have any effect.

Automated summary

With economic growth in Turkey, the demand for energy has increased, largely met by the use of fossil fuels. Research shows a quadratic relationship between carbon dioxide emissions and per capita income in Turkey, supporting the Environmental Kuznets Curve theory. In both the short and long term, CO2 emissions are mainly influenced by income, with minimal contribution from industry and no effect from trade openness.