Journal
ENERGY
Volume 141, Issue -, Pages 2613-2627Publisher
PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2017.07.065
Keywords
Lifestyles; Energy system; Energy demand; Foresight; Modelling; Transition
Categories
Funding
- Modelling for Sustainable Development Chair (MPDD)
- ACTeon (French Consulting and Research Company specialised in environmental strategies and policies)
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Among the tools and processes that are used to inform decisions makers on the long-term challenges raised by energy transition, numerical models are at the forefront. Whether led at the global, continental, country or local level, they help projecting the future operational conditions of our energy systems. However the possibility of addressing the sustainability challenge by changes in our lifestyles rather than technical solutions often remains outside the scope of such models whereas lifestyles contain a set of key determinants of mobility, housing, spatial planning or the organization terms of the productive sectors (industry, agriculture, services). Energy is not consumed for itself and understanding how the future demand of energy services could be framed is an important issue. This paper makes proposals to improve the consideration of lifestyles in the quantitative foresight exercises. Our methodology includes the development of a statistical model of the dynamic of changes in lifestyle patterns to derive energy service demands. The use of this model provides a more coherent framework for the formulation of lifestyle change scenarios. A set of three lifestyles anticipated for France are then designed and discussed up to 2072. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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