Journal
ENERGIES
Volume 10, Issue 10, Pages -Publisher
MDPI AG
DOI: 10.3390/en10101542
Keywords
photovoltaic (PV) power generation; power forecasting; artificial neural network; dynamic model
Categories
Funding
- Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities [2016MS52, 2016MS31]
- Research Funds from State Grid Corporation of China [SGHE0000KXJS1700074.]
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Due to the large scale of grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) power generation installations, accurate PV power forecasting is critical to the safe and economic operation of the electric power system. In the paper, by analyzing the influence of external ambient factors and the changing characteristics of PV modules with time, it is found that PV power generation is a nonlinear and time-varying process. This suggests that a certain single forecasting model is inadequate for representing actual generation characteristics, and it is difficult to obtain an accurate forecasting result. An adaptive back propagation (BP) neural network model adopting scrolling time window is proposed to solve the problem. Via an update of the training data of BP neural network with the scrolling time window, the forecasting model adapts to time and a changing external environment with the required modeling precision. Meanwhile, through evaluation of the forecasting performance in different time windows, an optimized time window can be determined to guarantee accuracy. Finally, using the actual operation data of a PV plant in Beijing, the approach is validated as being applicable for PV power forecasting and is able to effectively respond to the dynamic change of the PV power generation process. This improves the forecasting accuracy and also reduces computation complexity as compared with the conventional BP neural network algorithm.
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