Journal
TOURISM ECONOMICS
Volume 28, Issue 5, Pages 1333-1341Publisher
SAGE PUBLICATIONS LTD
DOI: 10.1177/1354816620981199
Keywords
economic policy uncertainty; geopolitical risk; tourism demand; US overseas air travel
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The research shows that US economic policy uncertainty has a larger impact on the forecast error variance of US overseas air travel compared to geopolitical risk. Global economic policy uncertainty has a much smaller influence on the forecast error variance.
This research note extends the literature on the role of economic policy uncertainty and geopolitical risk on US citizens overseas air travel through the examination of the forecast error variance decomposition of total overseas air travel and by regional destination. Our empirical findings indicate that across regional destinations, US economic policy uncertainty explains more of the forecast error variance of US overseas air travel, followed by geopolitical risk with global economic policy uncertainty explaining a much smaller percentage of the forecast error variance.
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