President Obama and the Emergence of Islamophobia in Mass Partisan Preferences

This article argues that the unusually large and persistent association between Islamophobia and opposition to President Obama helped make attitudes about Muslims a significant, independent predictor of Americans' broader partisan preferences. After detailing the theoretical basis for this argument, the article marshals repeated cross-sectional data, two panel surveys, and a nationally representative survey experiment, to test its hypotheses. The results from those analyses show the following: (1) attitudes about Muslims were a significantly stronger independent predictor of voter preferences for congress in 2010-2014 elections than they were in 2004-2008; (2) attitudes about Muslims were a significantly stronger independent predictor of mass partisanship during Obama's presidency than they were beforehand; and (3) experimentally connecting Obama to Democratic congressional candidates significantly increased the relationship between anti-Muslim sentiments and Americans' preferences for Republican congressional candidates. The article concludes with a discussion of the implications of these results for American politics in the Trump era.

Automated summary

This article argues that the association between Islamophobia and opposition to President Obama played a significant role in shaping Americans' partisan preferences, with attitudes towards Muslims becoming an independent predictor. Analysis from cross-sectional data, panel surveys, and a survey experiment showed that attitudes towards Muslims had a stronger impact on voter preferences during Obama's presidency than before, particularly in relation to Republican congressional candidates. These results have implications for American politics in the Trump era.