Yellow Vests, Pessimistic Beliefs, and Carbon Tax Aversion

Using a representative survey, we find that after the Yellow Vests movement, French people would largely reject a tax and dividend policy, i.e., a carbon tax whose revenues are redistributed uniformly to each adult. They overestimate their net monetary losses, wrongly think that the policy is regressive, and do not perceive it as environmentally effective. We show that changing people's beliefs can substantially increase support. Although significant, the effects of our informational treatments on beliefs are small. Indeed, the respondents that oppose the tax tend to discard positive information about it, which is consistent with distrust, uncertainty, or motivated reasoning. (JEL D83, H23, H31, Q54, Q58)

Automated summary

Based on a representative survey, it was found that the majority of French people oppose a tax and dividend policy, which redistributes carbon tax revenues equally to each adult. They overestimate their monetary losses, perceive the policy as regressive, and doubt its environmental effectiveness. The study shows that changing people's beliefs can increase support, but the impact of informational treatments on beliefs is small.