The spatial dissemination of COVID-19 and associated socio-economic consequences

The ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has wreaked havoc worldwide with millions of lives claimed, human travel restricted and economic development halted. Leveraging city-level mobility and case data, our analysis shows that the spatial dissemination of COVID-19 can be well explained by a local diffusion process in the mobility network rather than a global diffusion process, indicating the effectiveness of the implemented disease prevention and control measures. Based on the constructed case prediction model, it is estimated that there could be distinct social consequences if the COVID-19 outbreak happened in different areas. During the epidemic control period, human mobility experienced substantial reductions and the mobility network underwent remarkable local and global structural changes toward containing the spread of COVID-19. Our work has important implications for the mitigation of disease and the evaluation of the socio-economic consequences of COVID-19 on society.

Automated summary

This research shows that the spatial dissemination of COVID-19 can be explained by a local diffusion process in the mobility network, indicating the effectiveness of disease prevention and control measures. It also highlights the potential social consequences of COVID-19 outbreaks in different areas. During the epidemic control period, there were significant reductions in human mobility and changes in the structure of the mobility network to contain the spread of the virus.