Journal
NATURE ENERGY
Volume 1, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
DOI: 10.1038/NENERGY.2016.86
Keywords
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Funding
- National Science Foundation of China [71573152]
- Ministry of Science and Technology of China
- National Development and Reform Commission of China
- National Energy Administration of China
- Rio Tinto
- Total
- Energy Information Administration of the US Department of Energy
- US Department of Energy Office of Science [DE-FG02-94ER61937]
- MIT-Tsinghua China Energy and Climate Project Eni S.p.A.
- French Development Agency (AFD)
- ICF International
- Shell International Limited
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Expanding the use of wind energy for electricity generation forms an integral part of China's efforts to address degraded air quality and climate change. However, the integration of wind energy into China's coal-heavy electricity system presents significant challenges owing to wind's variability and the grid's system-wide inflexibilities. Here we develop a model to predict how much wind energy can be generated and integrated into China's electricity mix, and estimate a potential production of 2.6 petawatt-hours (PWh) per year in 2030. Although this represents 26% of total projected electricity demand, it is only 10% of the total estimated physical potential of wind resources in the country. Increasing the operational flexibility of China's coal fleet would allow wind to deliver nearly three-quarters of China's target of producing 20% of primary energy from non-fossil sources by 2030.
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