Journal
COMMUNICATIONS EARTH & ENVIRONMENT
Volume 3, Issue 1, Pages -Publisher
SPRINGERNATURE
DOI: 10.1038/s43247-022-00354-4
Keywords
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Funding
- Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models (TOUGOU) from the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan [JPMXD0717935457]
- Arctic Challenge for Sustainability (ArCS) Project [JPMXD1300000000]
- Arctic Challenge for Sustainability II (ArCS II) Project [JPMXD1420318865]
- Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS) [17K12830]
- Grants-in-Aid for Scientific Research [17K12830] Funding Source: KAKEN
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Research indicates that Arctic warming amplification is expected to be stronger in a low-emission scenario compared to a high-emission scenario. In the high-emission scenario, summer sea ice may completely melt away by around 2050, while in the low-emission scenario, the reduction of sea ice contributes to Arctic warming amplification.
The Arctic region has warmed faster than the global mean in past decades. Future climate change projections also suggest this Arctic warming amplification will continue. Here, using 50-member historical and future scenario simulations by a single climate model, we find that Arctic warming amplification is stronger in a low-emission scenario, compared to a high-emission scenario, after the mid-2040s. This is because in the low-emission scenario, sea ice continues to exist beyond 2040 and the ice-albedo feedback therefore maintains Arctic warming, unlike other latitudes. By contrast, in the high-emission scenario summer sea ice melts away by about 2050. Multi-model analyses show that the strength of Arctic amplification in the low-emission scenario is highly correlated with the amount of sea-ice reduction, whereas this relationship weakens in the high-emission scenario. Our results indicate that climate change mitigation may have a side effect because Arctic warming persists even if the global warming is stabilized. Arctic warming amplification is intensified in a low-emission scenario after the mid-2040s, compared to a high-emission scenario, because of a continuing ice-albedo feedback, according to 50-member ensemble simulations with a climate model.
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