The plastics integrated assessment model (PLAIA): Assessing emission mitigation pathways and circular economy strategies for the plastics sector

Integrated assessment models (IAM) study the interlinkages between human and natural systems and play a key role in assessing global strategies to reduce global warming. However, they largely neglect the role of materials and the circular economy. With the Plastics Integrated Assessment model (PLAIA), we included plastic production, use, and end-of-life in the IAM IMAGE. PLAIA models the global plastics sector and its impacts up to 2100 for 26 world regions, providing a long-term, dynamic perspective of the sector and its interactions with other socioeconomic and natural systems. This article summarizes the model structure, mathematical formulation, assumptions, and data sources. The model links the upstream chemical production with the downstream production of plastics, their use in different sectors, and their end of life. Therefore, PLAIA can assess material use and emission mitigation strategies throughout the whole life cycle in an IAM, including the impacts of the circular economy on mitigating climate change. PLAIA projects plastics demand, production pathways and specifies the annual plastic waste generation, collection, and the impact of waste management strategies. It shows the fossil and bio-based energy and carbon flows in product stocks, landfills, and the emissions in production and at the end of life.center dot We included plastics production, use, and waste management into an Integrated Assessment Model (IAM).center dot Our model PLAIA provides a long-term, dynamic perspective of the global plastics sector until 2100 and its interactions with other sectors and the environment. center dot PLAIA can assess the impact of material use and emission mitigation strategies throughout the whole life cycle of plastics.(c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license ( http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/ )

Automated summary

Integrated Assessment Models (IAM) play a key role in assessing global strategies to reduce global warming by studying the interlinkages between human and natural systems. However, they often overlook the role of materials and the circular economy. The Plastics Integrated Assessment model (PLAIA) addresses this gap by including plastic production, use, and end-of-life in the IAM IMAGE. PLAIA provides a long-term, dynamic perspective on the global plastics sector and its interactions with socioeconomic and natural systems, enabling assessments of material use and emission mitigation strategies throughout the plastics' entire life cycle.