JUE Insight: How much does COVID-19 increase with mobility? Evidence from New York and four other US cities

How effective are restrictions on mobility in limiting COVID-19 spread? Using zip code data across five U.S. cities, we estimate that total cases per capita decrease by 19% for every ten percentage point fall in mobility. Addressing endogeneity concerns, we instrument for travel by residential teleworkable and essential shares and find a 25% decline in cases per capita. Using panel data for NYC with week and zip code fixed effects, we estimate a decline of 30%. We find substantial spatial and temporal heterogeneity; east coast cities have stronger effects, with the largest for NYC in the pandemic's early stages.

Automated summary

Restrictions on mobility are effective in limiting the spread of COVID-19, with a decrease of 19% to 30% in total cases per capita for every ten percentage point fall in mobility. East coast cities have stronger effects, with the largest impact seen in NYC during the early stages of the pandemic.