Revisiting salt marsh resilience to sea level rise: Are ponds responsible for permanent land loss?

Ponds are unvegetated rounded depressions commonly present on marsh platforms. The role of ponds on the long-term morphological evolution of tidal marshes is unclearat times ponds expand but eventually recover the marsh platform, at other times ponds never recover and lead to permanent marsh loss. Existing field observations indicate that episodic disturbances of the marsh vegetation cause the formation of small (1-10m) isolated ponds, even if the vegetated platform keeps pace with relative sea level rise (RSLR) and that isolated ponds tend to deepen and enlarge until they eventually connect to the channel network. Here I implement a simple model to study the vertical and planform evolution of a single connected pond. A newly connected pond recovers if its bed lies above the limit for marsh plant growth or if the inorganic deposition rate is larger than the RSLR rate. A pond that cannot accrete faster than RSLR will deepen and enlarge, eventually entering a runaway erosion by wave edge retreat. A large tidal range, a large sediment supply, and a low rate of RSLR favor pond recovery. The model suggests that inorganic sediment deposition alone controls pond recovery, even in marshes where organic matter dominates accretion of the vegetated platform. As such, halting permanent marsh loss by pond collapse requires to increase inorganic sediment deposition. Because pond collapse is possible even if the vegetated platform keeps pace with RSLR, I conclude that marsh resilience to RSLR is less than previously quantified.