Delaying precipitation by air pollution over the Pearl River Delta: 2. Model simulations

In Part 1 of two companion studies, analyses of observational data over the Pearl River Delta of China showed that larger aerosol concentrations (polluted conditions) resulted in suppressed precipitation before the midafternoon while resulting in enhanced precipitation after the midafternoon when compared to precipitation with smaller aerosol concentrations (clean conditions). This suggests that there is a tipping point in the transition from suppressing to enhancing precipitation with increases in aerosol concentration. This paper aims to identify mechanisms that control the tipping point by performing simulations. Simulations show that during the first three quarters of the 12h simulation period, aerosol as a radiation absorber suppresses convection and precipitation by inducing greater radiative heating and stability. Convection weakens and precipitation reduces more under polluted conditions than under clean conditions. Due to the suppressed convection, the depletion of convective energy decreases. The reduced depletion of convective energy during the period of the suppressed convection boosts the level of stored energy after this period. The boosted level of stored energy enables updrafts to be strong enough to transport a greater amount of cloud liquid to the freezing level and to levels above it under polluted conditions than under clean conditions. This in turn induces greater freezing-related latent heating, buoyancy, and thus stronger convection and results in the transition from lower precipitation rates during the first three quarters of the simulation period to higher precipitation rates during the last quarter of the period under polluted conditions than under clean conditions. Key Points Aerosol radiative effects initially dominate over microphysical effects on the convection After the initial stage, microphysical effects dominate over aerosol radiative effects Interactions between the two effects lead to the delayed occurrence of the peak in precipitation