The influence of winter cloud on summer sea ice in the Arctic, 1983-2013

Arctic sea ice extent has declined dramatically over the last two decades, with the fastest decrease and greatest variability in the Beaufort, Chukchi, and East Siberian Seas. Thinner ice in these areas is more susceptible to changes in cloud cover, heat and moisture advection, and surface winds. Using two climate reanalyses and satellite data, it is shown that increased wintertime surface cloud forcing contributed to the 2007 summer sea ice minimum. An analysis over the period 1983-2013 reveals that reanalysis cloud forcing anomalies in the East Siberian and Kara Seas precondition the ice pack and, as a result, explain 25% of the variance in late summer sea ice concentration. This finding was supported by Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer cloud cover anomalies, which explain up to 45% of the variance in sea ice concentration. Results suggest that winter cloud forcing anomalies in this area have predictive capabilities for summer sea ice anomalies across much of the central and Eurasian Arctic.