Journal
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES
Volume 121, Issue 23, Pages 14018-14034Publisher
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1002/2016JD025119
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Contribution of different Middle Eastern dust origins to PM10 (PM with aerodynamic diameters less than 10 mu m) levels in several receptor large cities in Iran was investigated. Initially, the major regional dust episodes were determined through statistical analysis of recorded PM levels at air quality stations and verified using satellite images. The particles dispersion was simulated by Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) to regenerate PM10 during the dust episodes. The accuracy of the modeled results was rather convincing, with an average squared correlation coefficient (R-2) of 0.7 (max = 0.95). Consequently, the contributions of different dust sources to the observed concentrations were determined. Basin of Tigris-Euphrates Rivers encompasses active dust sources with significant rate of emission due to fluvial deposits. The sources in this basin with approximately 70-95% contribution, by far, had the most influence on PM10 levels at the receptor cities. In a finer resolution, northern and central parts of Iraq had the most influence on PM10 level during the dust episodes. Effect of probable improvement or deterioration of the current dust origin conditions on PM10 levels was analyzed by performing a sensitivity analysis through varying threshold friction velocities. The results demonstrated that 10% increase or decrease in threshold friction velocities of major dust sources could lead to average of 51% decrease or 77% increase in the receptor cities' PM10, respectively. Finally, effects of Lake Urmia desiccation, as a new hydrological prospect dust origin were analyzed. The predicted dust from the prospective dried lake bed could result in similar to 30-60% increase in PM10 of nearby cities during the studied dust episodes.
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