Journal
TRANSPORTATION PLANNING AND TECHNOLOGY
Volume 45, Issue 2, Pages 179-201Publisher
TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD
DOI: 10.1080/03081060.2022.2084397
Keywords
Freight demand modeling; e-commerce; agent-based simulation; freight delivery; urban freight
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Funding
- National Research Foundation, Prime Minister's Office, Singapore, under its CREATE programme
- Singapore-MIT Alliance for Research and Technology (SMART) Future Urban Mobility (FM)
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This article introduces a novel framework for predicting e-commerce demand and evaluating the impacts of relevant policies and solutions. The framework considers the impacts of delivery options and their attributes on multiple dimensions of e-commerce demand and simulates the changes in e-commerce demand.
The e-commerce market has grown rapidly in the past two decades. The need for predicting e-commerce demand and evaluating relevant policies and solutions is increasing. However, the existing simulation models for e-commerce demand are still limited and do not consider the impacts of delivery options and their attributes that shoppers face on multiple dimensions of e-commerce demand. We propose a novel framework involving disaggregate behavioral models that jointly predict e-commerce expenditure, purchase amount per transaction, delivery mode, and option choices. The proposed framework can simulate the changes in e-commerce demand and be used to evaluate the impacts of a range of policies and solutions. We specify the model parameters based on various sources of relevant information, integrate the model into an urban freight simulator, and conduct a demonstrative simulation for a prototypical North American city. The results of the analysis highlight the capability and applicability of the proposed modeling framework.
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