Surrogate Endpoints for Late Kidney Transplantation Failure

In kidney transplant recipients, late graft failure is often multifactorial. In addition, primary endpoints in kidney transplantation studies seek to demonstrate the short-term efficacy and safety of clinical interventions. Although such endpoints might demonstrate short-term improvement in specific aspects of graft function or incidence of rejection, such findings do not automatically translate into meaningful long-term graft survival benefits. Combining many factors into a well-validated model is therefore more likely to predict long-term outcome and better reflect the complexity of late graft failure than using single endpoints. If conditional marketing authorization could be considered for therapies that aim to improve long-term outcomes following kidney transplantation, then the surrogate endpoint for graft failure in clinical trial settings needs clearer definition. This Consensus Report considers the potential benefits and drawbacks of several candidate surrogate endpoints (including estimated glomerular filtration rate, proteinuria, histological lesions, and donor-specific anti-human leukocyte antigen antibodies) and composite scoring systems. The content was created from information prepared by a working group within the European Society for Organ Transplantation (ESOT). The group submitted a Broad Scientific Advice request to the European Medicines Agency (EMA), June 2020: the request focused on clinical trial design and endpoints in kidney transplantation. Following discussion and refinement, the EMA made final recommendations to ESOT in December 2020 regarding the potential to use surrogate endpoints in clinical studies that aim to improving late graft failure.

Automated summary

Late graft failure in kidney transplant recipients is often multifactorial, and the primary endpoints of kidney transplantation studies focus on short-term efficacy and safety of clinical interventions. Short-term improvements in specific aspects of graft function or rejection rates may not necessarily lead to meaningful long-term graft survival benefits, and combining multiple factors into a well-validated model is more likely to predict long-term outcomes. Consideration of conditional marketing authorization for therapies aiming to improve long-term outcomes following kidney transplantation highlights the need for clearer definitions of surrogate endpoints in clinical trial settings.