Journal
ENERGY AND AI
Volume 9, Issue -, Pages -Publisher
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.egyai.2022.100165
Keywords
Time series analysis; Non-linear models; District heating; Smart energy systems
Funding
- Sustainable plus energy neighbourhoods (syn.ikia) [869918]
- FME-ZEN (Research Council of Norway) [257660]
- Top-up (Innovation Fund Denmark) [9045-00017B]
- SCA+ (Interreg OEresund-Kattegat-Skagerrak)
- Flexibile Energy Denmark (FED) [IFD 8090-00069B]
Ask authors/readers for more resources
This paper proposes non-linear autoregressive models with exogenous inputs to model the air temperature in each room of a Danish school building. It introduces methods to estimate the solar radiation effect and the valve position of the radiator thermostats. The models are able to accurately predict the temperature 24 hours ahead and capture the variations in solar radiation and heat inputs.
This paper proposes non-linear autoregressive models with exogenous inputs to model the air temperature in each room of a Danish school building connected to the local district heating network. To obtain satisfactory models, the authors find it necessary to estimate the solar radiation effect as a function of the time of the day using a B-spline basis expansion. Furthermore, this paper proposes a method for estimating the valve position of the radiator thermostats in each room using modified Hermite polynomials to ensure monotonicity of the estimated curve. The non-linearities require a modification in the estimation procedure: Some parameters are estimated in an outer optimisation, while the usual regression parameters are estimated in an inner optimisation. The models are able to simulate the temperature 24 h ahead with a root-mean-square-error of the predictions between 0.25 degrees C and 0.6 degrees C. The models seem to capture the solar radiation gain in a way aligned with expectations. The estimated thermostatic valve functions also seem to capture the important variations of the individual room heat inputs.
Authors
I am an author on this paper
Click your name to claim this paper and add it to your profile.
Reviews
Recommended
No Data Available