A Local Land Use Competition Cellular Automata Model and Its Application

Cellular automaton (CA) is an important method in land use and cover change studies, however, the majority of research focuses on the discovery of macroscopic factors affecting LUCC, which results in ignoring the local effects within the neighborhoods. This paper introduces a Local Land Use Competition Cellular Automata (LLUC-CA) model, based on local land use competition, land suitability evaluation, demand analysis of the different land use types, and multi-target land use competition allocation algorithm to simulate land use change at a micro level. The model is applied to simulate land use changes at Jinshitan National Tourist Holiday Resort from 1988 to 2012. The results show that the simulation accuracies were 64.46%, 77.21%, 85.30% and 99.14% for the agricultural land, construction land, forestland and water, respectively. In addition, comparing the simulation results of the LLUC-CA and CA-Markov model with the real land use data, their overall spatial accuracies were found to be 88.74% and 86.82%, respectively. In conclusion, the results from this study indicated that the model was an acceptable method for the simulation of large-scale land use changes, and the approach used here is applicable to analyzing the land use change driven forces and assist in decision-making.