Life-cycle CO2 mitigation of China's class-8 heavy-duty trucks requires hybrid strategies

China has committed to peaking its CO2 emissions by 2030 in order to achieve its 2060 carbon neutrality target. Heavy-duty trucks (HDTs) are an important area to decarbonize, given the continuously rising greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in this sector. Various low-carbon options have emerged, yet a comprehensive understanding of the extent to which these options can decarbonize HDT throughout the life cycle remains limited. Here, we adopt a life-cycle analysis to assess and compare the GHG mitigation potential of highly efficient diesel engines, battery-electrics, and hydrogen fuel cells for China's class-8 HDTs in 2030. Results show that all three options could enable >38% life-cycle GHG reductions. The battery-electric option, however, requires well-established fast-charging infrastructures to maintain the freight-carrying capacity that will otherwise be compromised by larger batteries. Hydrogen fuel cells can attain 80% reduction when paired with low-carbon hydrogen. Hybrid strategies, including improving engine efficiency, decarbonizing power grids, optimizing freight logistics, and incentivizing behavioral changes, are necessary for the efficient and effective HDT decarbonization that is key to China achieving carbon neutrality by 2060.

Automated summary

China is committed to peaking its CO2 emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060. Heavy-duty trucks (HDTs) play a crucial role in decarbonization efforts due to their high greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. However, the extent to which different low-carbon options can reduce GHG emissions throughout the life cycle of HDTs is not well understood. A life-cycle analysis was conducted to compare the GHG mitigation potential of highly efficient diesel engines, battery-electrics, and hydrogen fuel cells for China's class-8 HDTs in 2030. The results show that all three options can achieve more than 38% reduction in life-cycle GHG emissions. However, battery-electric HDTs require fast-charging infrastructure to maintain freight-carrying capacity, while hydrogen fuel cells can achieve an 80% reduction when paired with low-carbon hydrogen. Hybrid strategies that consider engine efficiency, power grid decarbonization, freight logistics optimization, and behavioral changes are necessary for effective and efficient HDT decarbonization to achieve China's carbon neutrality goal by 2060.