A nomogram for predicting recurrence-free survival of intermediate and high-risk neuroblastoma

This study aimed to confirm the independent risk factors for recurrence-free survival (RFS) in intermediate and high-risk neuroblastoma (NB) patients and set up an effective nomogram model for predicting the recurrence of NB. A total of 212 children with intermediate- and high-risk neuroblastoma, who had ever achieved complete remission (CR) or very good partial remission (VGPR) after standardized treatment in this hospital, were chosen as study objects. After retrospective analysis of the clinical data, Cox regression model was used to explore the factors related to the recurrence of neuroblastoma, to determine the variables to construct the Nomogram. The consistency index would predict the accuracy of this nomogram. RFS rate in 1-year, 3-year, 5-year, and 10-year was 0.811, 0.662, 0.639, and 0.604, respectively. Children with MYCN amplification had a higher neuron-specific enolase (NSE) value (P = 0.031) at the initial diagnosis than MYCN non-amplification. The univariate analysis predicted that increased vanillylmandelic acid (VMA) and NSE value and dehydrogenase (LDH) > 1000 U/L were important adverse factors for the recurrence of NB. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that age at diagnosis, tumor localization, MYCN state, histologic subtype, and tumor capsule were significantly associated with RFS (all P values < 0.05). Nomograms were established for predicting the recurrence of NB according to the Cox regression analysis. Internal verification by the Bootstrap method showed that the prediction of the nomogram's consistency index (C-index) was 0.824 (P = 0.023). Conclusion: Age at diagnosis, tumor localization, MYCN state, histologic category, and tumor capsule were independent risk factors for the recurrence of NB. The nomogram model could accurately predict the recurrence of children with neuroblastoma.

Automated summary

This study retrospectively analyzed data from intermediate and high-risk neuroblastoma patients and identified age at diagnosis, tumor localization, MYCN state, histologic subtype, and tumor capsule as independent risk factors for recurrence. A nomogram model was established to accurately predict the recurrence of neuroblastoma.