CLIMATE-CHANGE-INDUCED TEMPORAL VARIATION IN PRECIPITATION INCREASES NITROGEN LOSSES FROM INTENSIVE CROPPING SYSTEMS: ANALYSIS WITH A TOY MODEL

A simple 'toy' model of productivity and nitrogen and phosphorus cycling was used to evaluate how the increasing temporal variation in precipitation that is predicted (and observed) to occur as a consequence of greenhouse-gas -induced climate change will affect crop yields and losses of reactive N that can cause environmental damage and affect human health. The model predicted that as temporal variability in precipitation increased it progressively reduced yields and increased losses of reactive N by disrupting the synchrony between N supply and plant N uptake. Also, increases in the temporal variation of precipitation increased the frequency of floods and droughts. Predictions of this model indicate that climate-change-driven increases in temporal variation in precipitation in rainfed agricultural ecosystems will make it difficult to sustain cropping systems that are both high-yielding and have small environmental and human-health footprints.

Automated summary

Increased temporal variation in precipitation due to climate change adversely affects crop yields and causes increased losses of reactive N, while also increasing the frequency of floods and droughts, making it difficult to sustain high-yielding cropping systems with minimal environmental and human-health impacts.