Ozone, DNA-active UV radiation, and cloud changes for the near-global mean and at high latitudes due to enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations

This study analyses the variability and trends of ultraviolet-B (UV-B, wavelength 280-320 nm) radiation that can cause DNA damage. The variability and trends caused by climate change due to enhanced greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations. The analysis is based on DNA-active irradiance, total ozone, total cloud cover, and surface albedo calculations with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts - Hamburg (ECHAM)/Modular Earth Submodel System (MESSy) Atmospheric Chemistry (EMAC) chemistry-climate model (CCM) free-running simulations following the RCP 6.0 climate scenario for the period 1960-2100. The model output is evaluated with DNA-active irradiance ground-based measurements, satellite SBUV (v8.7) total-ozone measurements, and satellite MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) Terra cloud cover data. The results show that the model reproduces the observed variability and change in total ozone, DNA-active irradiance, and cloud cover for the period 2000-2018 quite well according to the statistical comparisons. Between 50 degrees N-50 degrees S, the DNA-damaging UV radiation is expected to decrease until 2050 and to increase thereafter, as was shown previously by Eleftheratos et al. (2020). This change is associated with decreases in the model total cloud cover and negative trends in total ozone after about 2050 due to increasing GHGs. The new study confirms the previous work by adding more stations over low latitudes and mid-latitudes (13 instead of 5 stations). In addition, we include estimates from high-latitude stations with long-term measurements of UV irradiance (three stations in the northern high latitudes and four stations in the southern high latitudes greater than 55 degrees). In contrast to the predictions for 50 degrees N-50 degrees S, it is shown that DNA-active irradiance will continue to decrease after the year 2050 over high latitudes because of upward ozone trends. At latitudes poleward of 55 degrees N, we estimate that DNA-active irradiance will decrease by 8.2 % +/- 3.8 % from 2050 to 2100. Similarly, at latitudes poleward of 55 degrees S, DNA-active irradiance will decrease by 4.8 % +/- 2.9 % after 2050. The results for the high latitudes refer to the summer period and not to the seasons when ozone depletion occurs, i.e. in late winter and spring. The contributions of ozone, cloud, and albedo trends to the DNA-active irradiance trends are estimated and discussed.

Automated summary

This study analyzes the changes and trends of DNA-damaging ultraviolet-B (UV-B) radiation, showing that it will decrease before 2050 and increase afterwards due to enhanced greenhouse gas concentrations. The decrease is associated with reduced total cloud cover and negative trends in total ozone, while the increase is linked to upward ozone trends. The findings highlight the importance of understanding the effects of climate change on UV radiation.