Predicted current and future distribution of the fire salamander, Salamandra infraimmaculata in Turkey

Although the fire salamander, Salamandra infraimmaculata, is relatively distributed in a broad area in the Middle East, it lives in a narrow area in southeast and south Anatolia in Turkey. The habitats of the species have been downgraded day by day, and its IUCN category is listed as NT, and the population trend is decreasing. Within the scope of this study, a model was created with the existing locality records of the species using ecological niche modeling. As a result of this model, the current and future distribution of the species were compared. The results obtained from the analyzes made within the scope of this study showed that the current probable distribution of the species coincides with the existing locality records. However, for possible climate change scenarios, the possible future distribution of the species will be thought to be negatively affected by the increase in the greenhouse gas effect, the change in the amount of carbon dioxide, and the increase of many harmful gas concentrations in the atmosphere. If all four climate scenarios proposed in this study in the future occur sequentially, the species will have to limit or change its range, and even become will be extinct in some areas. Species conservation action plans should be initiated, and local governments should take necessary measures to prevent this from happening.

Automated summary

This study used ecological niche modeling to analyze the distribution of the fire salamander, and found that the current distribution coincides with existing locality records. However, future distribution may be negatively affected by climate change scenarios, potentially leading to range restrictions or even extinction.