Increased wheat price spikes and larger economic inequality with 2? global warming

Climate change poses complex impacts on the global wheat supply and demand chain. The impacts of climate change on average wheat yields are reasonably well studied, but its effects on yield variability and the associated economic consequences are poorly understood. Here, we show that future global wheat pri-ces will exhibit steeper spikes at 2 & DEG;C global warming (6.2% increase in the 95th percentile of global consumer price anomalies) despite a 1.7% increase in production given that CO2 fertilization benefits crops. Such eco-nomic stresses could be abated by trade liberalization with lower prices. However, on the supply side, trade liberalization has contrasting effects: the profitability of farmers in advanced economies can be maintained or even raised, but this will inevitably cause economic losses and inequalities for farmers in less-developed, wheat-importing countries. Agricultural trade liberalization accompanied by protection policies in developing countries would be beneficial for global food security in the threat of climate change.

Automated summary

Climate change has complex impacts on the global wheat supply and demand chain, particularly in terms of price and trade challenges. While increasing wheat production, price volatility intensifies, and trade liberalization may lead to economic losses and inequalities for developing countries. Therefore, a combination of trade liberalization and protection policies is needed to address the threat of climate change.