Forest Bioelectricity in Brazil: Distribution and Spatial-Time Dependence

This study was to present a methodology for analyzing the distribution and spatial-time dependence of the supply of forest bioelectricity in Brazil, from 2000 to 2019. The data for the granting of forest biomass thermoelectric plants were obtained from the National Electric Energy Agency (in Portuguese Agencia Nacional de Energia Eletrica-ANEEL). It used the exploratory analysis of spatial data, and as neighborhood criteria the spatial weighting matrices of k-neighbors closest and based on distance, as well as the global and local Moran indices to detect the presence of spatial dependence. The analysis of the situation, by quartile, showed the states of the central-southern portion of Brazil as the main locations of forest thermals. IMoran_Global highlighted the decrease in spatial autocorrelation between the years 2000 and 2019, associated with the implementation of new thermoelectric plants by the large groups Fibria, Klabin and Suzano Celulose throughout the national territory. The local index (IMoran_Local) pointed out high-powered clusters, especially in the early years, highlighting: the Bahia, Espirito Santo and Minas Gerais axis, the Parana thermal plants and Mato Grosso do Sul thermal plants. The local index also pointed outliers, which indicated possibility of associating thermoelectric plants with other activities, such as wood production and industries in the steel and paper and cellulose segment. The knowledge of the spatial pattern of the forest bioelectricity sector presented can help new feasibility studies for the implementation in bioelectricity and/or stimulate the development of public policies, focused on cluster regions and adjacent areas, which results in the growth of forest generation.

Automated summary

This study presents a methodology for analyzing the distribution and spatial-time dependence of the supply of forest bioelectricity in Brazil. The results indicate that the central-southern states of Brazil are the main locations for forest thermals. The decrease in spatial autocorrelation between 2000 and 2019 suggests the impact of new thermoelectric plants established by large groups throughout the country. The study also identifies high-powered clusters and outliers, indicating the possibility of associating thermoelectric plants with other activities.